| Estimate | Independent sources | Value | vs primary | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micron FY26E EPS FY ends Aug 31 2026 | S&P Global via StockAnalysis · 37 analysts (low $67.39 / high $80.16) | $73.32 | primary | ✓✓ Settled 0.8% spread across 3 sources |
| Zacks consensus | $72.75 | −0.8% | ||
| Bottom-up: Q1 $4.78 + Q2 $12.07 + Q3 $25.04 (all actual) + Q4 $31.00 (Micron's own guide, ±$1.00) | $72.89 | −0.6% | ||
| Micron FY27E EPS | S&P Global (high/low paywalled); Zacks corroborates directionally at ">100% growth" | $149.64 | primary | ✓ Consistent no 2nd point est. |
| SK Hynix FY26E EPS † derived | Back-solve from S&P Global fwd P/E 6.27x @ ₩2,425,000 (Jul 3) | ~₩386,762 | primary | ✓ Corroborated within 1.8% of the two live broker marks |
| KB Securities · 2026 OP ₩277T → EPS via TTM NI/OP 0.971 ÷ 708.3M sh | ₩379,756 | −1.8% | ||
| Morgan Stanley (Apr 19; raised ₩222T → ₩277T) · same conversion | ₩379,756 | −1.8% | ||
| Daishin Securities · 2026 OP ₩204T (raised ₩174T → ₩204T; older vintage) | ₩279,676 | −27.7% | ||
| SK Hynix FY27E EPS ‡ derived, 2nd-order | KB Securities · 2027 OP ₩428T → same conversion | ₩586,771 | — | ⚠ Derived only no published EPS consensus exists |
| Morgan Stanley · 2027 OP ₩408T (raised from ₩298T) → same conversion | ₩559,352 | — | ||
| Samsung FY26E EPS | S&P Global via StockAnalysis · 35 analysts (high/low withheld) | ₩44,861 | primary | ⚠ No 2nd EPS source OP proxies agree within ~6% |
| OP proxy: S&P Global FY26E operating income | ₩349.6T | primary | ||
| OP proxy: Mirae Asset FY26 operating profit forecast | ₩371.9T | +6.4% | ||
| Published dispersion — where a range exists at all | ||||
| Micron FY26E EPS range | S&P Global · 37 analysts | $67.39 – $80.16 | −8.1% / +9.3% | only EPS range published |
| Micron FY26E revenue range | S&P Global · 37 analysts | $122.6B – $138.8B | −5.4% / +7.1% | tight |
| Samsung FY26E revenue range | S&P Global · 35 analysts (EPS range withheld) | ₩541.4T – ₩764.7T | −20.8% / +11.9% | wide — proxy only |
| SK Hynix FY26E EPS range | no source publishes one | none | — | ✗ unavailable |
| Metric | SK Hynix | Samsung | Micron |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pricing (Jul 16 2026 close) | |||
| Price | ₩1,842,000 | ₩255,000 | $853.20 |
| Jul 16 single-day move | −11.5% | −8.8% | −5.7% |
| Change vs Jul 8 snapshot | −16.3% | −9.4% | −9.1% |
| From 52w high | −38.3% | −31.9% | −32.0% |
| Market cap (USD) | $881B | $1,040B | $964B |
| Market cap (KRW) | ₩1,305T | ₩1,540T | ₩1,428T |
| 52w high / low | ₩2,987K / 245K | ₩374K / 56.9K | $1,255 / $103 |
| Beta | 2.32 | 1.49 | 2.14 |
| Analyst consensus (sourced) | |||
| Fiscal year end | Dec 2026 | Dec 2026 | Aug 2026 |
| FY26E revenue | n/a | ₩683.4T | $129.6B |
| FY26E operating income | n/a | ₩349.6T | $98.05B |
| FY26E net income | n/a | ₩284.9T | $82.83B |
| FY26E EPS | ~₩386,800 (impl) | ₩44,861 | $73.32 |
| Forward P/E (FY26E) | 4.76x | 5.68x | 11.64x |
| FY27E EPS | ~₩573,000 ‡ | ₩56,330 | $149.64 |
| Forward P/E (FY27E) | 3.21x ‡ | 4.53x | 5.70x |
| EPS estimate range | n/a | n/a | $67.4 – $80.2 |
| No. of analysts | 37 | 35 | 37 |
| Consensus rating | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| FY25 actuals (CFS, native ccy) | |||
| Revenue | ₩97.1T | ₩333.6T | $37.4B |
| Operating profit | ₩47.2T | ₩43.6T | $9.77B |
| Net income | ₩42.95T | ₩45.21T | $8.54B |
| Basic EPS | ₩62,044 | ₩6,605 | $7.65 |
| Latest reported quarter | |||
| Period | Q1 (Jan-Mar) | Q1 (Jan-Mar) | Q3 FY26 (Mar-May 28) |
| Revenue | ₩52.58T | ₩133.87T | $41.46B |
| Operating profit | ₩37.61T | — | — |
| Net income | ₩40.35T | ₩47.23T | $28.24B |
| EPS | ₩57,175 | ₩7,123 | $24.67 (dil) |
| Quarter NI vs FY25 | 94% | 104% | 331% |
| Next catalyst | |||
| Upcoming print | Q2 · Jul 23 | Q2 full · Jul 24 | Q4 FY26 · late Sep |
| Prelim / street Q2 OP | ~₩65T cons. | ~₩89.4T guided | — |
| Trailing & other | |||
| TTM EPS | ₩105,641 | ₩12,462 | $44.31 |
| TTM P/E | 17.44x | 20.46x | 19.26x |
| P/B | 7.94x | 3.66x | ~12.3x |
| ROE | 61.2% | — | — |
| Dividend yield | 0.16% | 0.89% | 0.07% |
| Net cash | ₩32.5T | — | — |
This is now a proper bear move, not a wobble. Jul 16 delivered another leg down — SK Hynix −11.5%, Samsung −8.8%, Micron −5.7% in a single session, triggered by an overnight US chip selloff. From the late-June peaks, SK Hynix is −38%, Micron −32%, Samsung −32%. Micron's market cap has slipped back under the trillion-dollar mark to $964B. Korean coverage points to forced selling and leveraged-ETF unwinds amplifying the fall.
The estimates have not budged — which is the whole story. Consensus still models Samsung FY26E net income of ₩284.9T (revenue ₩683T, +105% YoY) and Micron FY26E net income of $82.8B on $129.6B revenue. Nobody has cut. So the multiple compression is pure de-rating: holding today's FY26E numbers fixed, SK Hynix has gone from 7.72x at the June peak to 4.76x — a 38% de-rate delivered entirely by price. Samsung and Micron both de-rated 32% on the same basis.
Adjusting for the fiscal calendar, all three converge on ~4.8-5.7x. Micron's headline 11.64x looks like an outlier only because its FY26 is nearly over. On the comparable next-twelve-months view, Micron's FY27E multiple is 5.70x against SK Hynix 4.76x and Samsung 5.68x (Samsung's own FY27E is 4.53x). Against a ~35x semis median, the group trades at roughly one-seventh of the sector.
Estimates are still being revised up, not down. Micron's FY26E EPS consensus sat near $34.62 in a March-vintage snapshot and stands at $73.32 today — a doubling — with FY27E at $149.64, more than double FY26 again. Across 35-37 analysts on each name, not one has cut into this drawdown. Either the street is badly behind the tape, or the fall is a positioning unwind rather than a fundamental re-rate — the Jul 23-24 prints are the test.
Watch the bar, not the number — and note that clearing it no longer helps either. The proximate trigger for SK Hynix's slide was a KIS note pegging Q2 operating profit at ₩60.4T: up 61% sequentially and 556% YoY, yet ~8% below the ₩65T street number. Samsung makes the sharper point. Its ~₩89.4T preliminary Q2 operating profit (~52% margin, ~19× YoY) beat the FnGuide consensus of ₩85.0T by 5.2% — and the sector sold off anyway. Misses get punished and beats get sold. That asymmetry, rather than the earnings themselves, is what the Jul 23-24 prints have to overcome.